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Iraq and American Death Count to 2017 PDF Print E-mail
Peace News
Tuesday, 29 May 2007 15:48
Iraq and American Death Count to 2017

chycho - The major problem of war, aside from the death and destruction that it causes, is that it becomes extremely difficult to obtain accurate information about the events leading up to a conflict, about what is occurring at the present, and what is to be expected for the future. Basically, the most universally applicable statement regarding war is that "The first casualty of War is Truth".

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The reasons for the invasion of Iraq by the United States and its allies are varied, what is occurring at present depends on whom you chose to believe, and what can be expected for the future depends on your interpretation of the data. Nobel Prize winner Joe Stiglitz and Professor Linda Bilmes in January 2006 estimated the economic cost of the Iraq war based on a gradual troop withdrawal by 2015 at close to $2.5 trillion. This unfortunately is only the minimum monetary cost of the war, since it was based on a troop reduction by 2006 with a complete gradual withdrawal by 2015. This report does not take into account the troop surge announced earlier this year which has no end in sight since the democrats' withdrawal timetable allows U.S. war in Sunni region to go on, and since military planners have abandoned the idea that standing up Iraqi troops will enable American soldiers to start coming home soon.

The human cost of the Iraq war, however, can not be so easily estimated, especially since it has been revealed that both USA and Iraq are concealing casualty figures. Some estimates have projected that US deaths will be approximately 12,000 by the year 2016. Extrapolation of data from other sites reveal approximately the same estimates for the total number of coalition casualties. These numbers are quite optimistic and do not seem to take into account an increase in the monthly casualty rate which is evident in the data.

Table 1 lists the total number of coalition casualties and Iraqi civilian death from March 2003 to March 2017. The numbers represented in bold are actual available data and the remaining data are estimates obtained from Figure 1 by using an approximately 20% increase in monthly casualties from 2007, for both coalition troops and Iraqi civilians, with the monthly rate decreasing as the region either becomes stable or as the occupation forces reduce their numbers. Casualties for coalition troops in the first two months of the invasion were not used in the monthly rate calculations.
Table 1: Iraq and American Death Count to 2017

The coalition death estimates in Figure 1 were obtained using simple linear extrapolation from the available data at Iraq Coalition Body Count. The Iraq civilian death estimates were obtained from the 2006 Lancet report and an approximation for the total number of deaths expected for 2007, based on the same monthly approximations as the coalition casualties.
Figure 1: Iraq Death Count for 2017

The numbers from this estimate are devastating. It is expected that over 8 million Iraqi civilians and well over 27 thousand coalition troops will be dead by March 2017. The monthly death rate for coalition troops will increase to approximately 300, while Iraq
Last Updated on Tuesday, 29 May 2007 15:48
 

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