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post cop21-Climate Change is Urgent; Time to be Bold PDF Print E-mail
Earth News
Posted by Joan Russow
Wednesday, 29 June 2016 08:36

 

by Joan Russow Global Compliance Resaearch Project

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At COP 21Ban Ki Moon, in Paris, urged states to negotiate with a global vision not with national vested interests (Cop21 press conference)

A global vision  would be to address article 2 and at a minimum to immediately end all subsidies for fossil fuel, to calculate the carbon budget for each state, to divest in fossil fuels and to reinvest in renewable energy, to conserve sinks -such as old growth forests and bogs, to strengthen conservation of  biodiversity, to avoid all false solutions such as nuclear, geo-engineering and biofuels which would all violate principles within the UNFCCC, to compensate for historical  emissions, and to institute a fair and just transitasion for workers affected negatively by the new vision.  and to promote nature based solutions  and socially equitablh and enviromentally sound suchas solar, wind, tidal, and geothermal

 

 

 

SUMMARY

.A. SUBMISSION TO COP21

B POST MORTEM OF  COP21SYSTEMIC CONSTRAINTS PREVENTING THE COMMITMENT TO URGENCY

One systemic Constraint is that some NGOs support a flawed document ,which does not seriously address the prevention of climate change because the document has, like an ominibus bill , included some statements that promote the NGOs main agenda

C. ALL STATES SHOULD ACT ON FULFILLING SDG 13 AND BAN KI MOON CALL FOR

NEGOTIATING WITH A GLOBAL VISION

 

.A.

SUBMISSION TO COP21

 

 

CLIMATE CHANGE: COP 21 PARIS - TIME TO BE BOLD

http://pejnews.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=10234:-climate-change-cop-21-paris-time-to-be-bold&catid=86:i-earth-news&Itemid=210

 

EXTRACTS                                                                      

 

 DEMANDING ACTION IN PARIS AND LEGAL ACTION THEREAFTER SHOULD NO ADEQUATE AGREEMENT BE REACHED the time for procrastination about climate change has long since passed; the world is in a state of emergency and further inaction is gross or even criminal negligence.

 

 

Targets and Timeframes

 

Because of the global urgency, there must be the political will to return earth’s temperature to its natural pre-industrial level, and strict time frames must be imposed, so that overall global emissions of greenhouse gases will begin to be reversed as of 2015 There must be a global target for greenhouse gas emission reductions of at least 30% below 1990 levels by 2015, at least 50% below 1990 levels by 2020, at least 75% below 1990 levels by 2030, at least 85% below 1990 levels by 2040 and 100% below 1990 emissions by 2050  while adhering to the precautionary principle, the differentiated responsibility principle *, and the fair and just transition principle. The required reductions in emissions cannot be achieved without an immediate end to the destruction of carbon sinks. Under the UNFCCC, every state signatory incurred the obligation to conserve carbon sinks; thus the destruction of sinks, including deforestation and elimination of bogs must end immediately.

The goal of COP 21 must be to return temperatures to pre-industrial levels and return atmospheric CO2 back to 278ppm at the latest by 2050.

In addition "Mitigation" must include the contribution  of continued extraction  of fossil fuels:

from the Leave it in the Ground Initiative (LINGO) www.leave-it-in-the-ground.org August 2015 The Paris Mirage -

"Reducing emissions while increasing them Many governments will pledge to reduce their countries’ CO2 emissions at COP21. Paradoxically, at the same time, most are working to increase them. Mitigation is not yet framed in terms of extraction of fossil fuels, but rather exclusively in terms of “emitting”. This allows extraction to go on, barely affected by mitigation efforts. Climate policy does not yet speak to mining and extraction policy. Governments continue to provide subsidies for fossil fuel extraction, even to exploration. The biggest national extraction sectors that in 2014 caused more than half a gigaton of CO2 emissions each are shown in Figure 1."

 

http://parisclimatejustice.org/sites/default/files/images/theparismiragelingobrief.pdf

 

1. China coal: 7.7 Gt ^

2. USA coal: 1.8 Gt 

3. USA gas: 1.5 Gt ^

4. USA oil: 1.3 Gt ^

5. Saudi Arabia oil: 1.3 Gt ^

6. India coal: 1.3 Gt ^

7. Russia oil: 1.3 Gt ^

8. Russia gas: 1.2 Gt -

9. Australia coal: 1.0 Gt n

10. Indonesia coal: 0.9 Gt n

11. Russia coal: 0.7 Gt n

12. South Africa coal: 0.5 Gt n

Figure 1. Key extraction sectors with annual CO2 emissions and 5-year-trends (arrows)

 

 

Sector Extraction Reserves Years Paris Accord Impact

(GtCO2/year) (GtCO2) (R/P ratio)

China coal 7.7 229.0 30 No impact (intensity target)

USA coal 1.8 474.6 262 Negative impact

USA gas 1.5 19.5 13 No impact (coal substitution)

USA oil 1.3 15.4 11 No impact (import substitution)

Saudi Arabia oil 1.3 84.6 64 No impact (no target & export)

India coal 1.3 121.2 94 No impact (intensity target)

Russia oil 1.2 32.7 26 No impact (hot air & export)

Russia gas 1.2 65.3 56 No impact (hot air & export)

Australia coal 0.8 152.8 155 No impact (export)

 

Indonesia coal 0.9 56.0 61 Possibly small negative impact

Figure 2. Sectoral impacts of an assumed Paris Accord over the next 15 years

Sources: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2015, own calculation

 

 

 Applicability of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change

 Under Article 2 of the legally binding UN Framework Convention on Climate change, all states are legally bound “to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. The fossil fuel states have already contributed, through fossil fuel subsidies, through reneging on Kyoto Protocol obligations and throughmaking a weak commitments in Copenhagen, to a dangerous level of anthropogenic emissions  dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.


To succeed in being below the dangerous 1°C, member states of the United Nations would have had to commit to remove CO2 from the atmosphere. It is estimated that to remove the necessary CO2 from the atmosphere, member states of the United Nations would have to commit to removing over 1000GT CO2 by 2050. This must be done through socially equitable and environmentally safe and sound methods and the levels required calculated within an in depth research project. Greenhouse Gas emissions resulting from destructive land use practices including in the rural, the urban and peri-urban environment must end. In order to achieve the required emission reductions, deforestation and the destruction of carbon sinks must end immediately and developing nations whose development will be affected must be compensated.
The right to development must be fulfilled so as to equitably meet developmental and environmental needs of developing countries and of present and future generations.
The credible current emerging science has indicated that the global climate crisis is much more urgent than was conveyed in the 2007 IPCC Report that was based on data from the years 2004 and 2005. Current and emerging science must be taken into consideration in Paris.

The 2014 IPCC report. Stated;

Carbon dioxide is the most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas.The global atmospheric concentration.

 

 

Need to move towards decarbonizationClimate Change 2007: Working Group III: Mitigation of Climate Change

3.4.1 Carbon-free energy and decarbonization

https://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg3/en/ch3s3-4-1.htm3tion of carbon dioxide has increased from a pre-industrial value of about 280 ppm to 379

 

Principle 7 from the Rio Declaration is paramount 

 

 States shall cooperate in a spirit of global partnership to conserve, protect and restore the health and integrity of the Earth's ecosystem. In view of the different contributions to global environmental degradation, States have common but differentiated responsibilities. 

 

in 2005. The atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide in 2005 exceeded by far the natural range over the last 650,000 years (180 to 300 ppm) as determined from ice core

 

Legal Remedy

 

In addition, major greenhouse gas-producing states must be forced to implement the actions that would discharge the obligations incurred when they signed and ratified the UNFCCC (provisions of the UNFCCC have become international peremptory norms and as such are binding) and other legal obligations and be forced to repay the emission debt. Historic emissions should be calculated and an assessment made of the degree of dereliction of duty in the implementation of the UNFCCC. From these assessments, provisions must be made to compensate the states that have been most damaged by the failure, of the major greenhouse gas emitting states, to discharge obligations under the Convention. In such cases, a fund should be set up to assist vulnerable states in taking delinquent states to the International Court of Justice, including the Chamber on Environmental Matters (http://www.icjcij.org/presscom/index.php?pr=106&p1=6&p2=1&search=%22%22Compositionof the Chamber for Environmental Matters

Funding

Industrialized states and major greenhouse gas producers must be prepared to enter into binding obligations not only through targets and time frames but also through funding mechanisms. This fund could be named Fund for the Implementation of the UNFCCC, and it would fund socially equitable and environmentally safe and sound energy renewable energy, transportation, agriculture and forestry. This fund would replace the GEF as the main source of funding for the UNFCCC. This international fund would take funds traditionally distributed not only through the GEF but also through the Bretton Woods institutions, such as the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, and additional bilateral funds, and now be channelled through this global fund. This fund would be indispensable for preventing climate change, and for achieving the objectives of the UNFCCC. Additional funds must be derived from reallocation of global military expenses, including budgets and arms production; at the 1992 United Nations Conference on the Environment and Development, all member states of the United Nations agreed, in Chapter 33 of Agenda 21, to the reallocation of military expenses. Additionally budgetary sources for this Fund would be the redirecting of subsidies from socially inequitable and environmentally unsound non-sustainable energy. The financial deal must include the cancellation of the outstanding debt of developing states, and the implementation of the minimal long-standing commitment of 0.7% of GDP being transferred to Overseas Development (ODA). The 0.7% obligation for development must not be diverted to climate change; there must be an additional obligation of more than 7% of GDP specifically designated for addressing climate change prevention. Any shortfall in funding should be bolstered by increased ODA by nations that inequitably have gained an advantage from historical emissions or reduction scenarios that are not in line with the principle of equity.

These funding measures could only just begin to for the emissions debt owed, by the developed states to the developing states.

Militarism

 

The IPCC and COP have not separately calculated the impact of militarism on greenhouse gas emissions. At the same time the dangers related to climate change, and the potential security implications related to resource conflict, and militarism has to be addressed. There is a disturbing link between foreign refusal to supply fossil fuel for the consumption of developed states being deemed to violate “strategic national interest” of developed states and the possible result of military intervention.
Vested Interests and need for majority decision making at COP 21


The entrenched immovable national interests have served to block serious legally binding instruments in Paris; must be prevented from blocking the adoption, in the General Assembly, of a strong legally binding agreement on climate change. Article 18 of the Charter of the United Nations reads: “Decisions of the General Assembly on important questions shall be made by a two-thirds majority of the members present and voting. These questions shall include recommendations with respect to the maintenance of international peace and security.” Undoubtedly, the impact of climate change could be deemed to fall under this category. In Paris, given the urgency of the issue of climate change, and its potential effects on the global population and on the political, economic, ecological and social global systems, the requirement for consensus must be waived, and a binding agreement on all states will be deemed to exist, if 66 % of the states concur. It is possible that a majority of the member states could agree to a strong legally binding ‘Cancun protocol’ to the UNFCCC. A strong Protocol to the UNFCCC could then be used against the delinquent states, and a case could be taken to the International Court of Justice under the UNFCCC, which has been signed and ratified by 192 states. Even most of the delinquent states including Canada and the US, have signed and ratified the UNFCCC. If not 66%, then the proposal made by Papua New Guinea at COP 15 should be in place in Paris; the proposal was that state parties to the Convention should strive for consensus with a fall back on 75%. It should be noted that the UNFCCC was adopted by 150 of the then188 members of the United Nations (79%) and that under article 2 of the Montreal Protocol, Parties can if all efforts at consensus have been exhausted, and no agreement reached, adopt decisions by a two-thirds majority.

 

There is a recent precedent  in the negotiating process in the Arms Trade treaty 

Article 20. 3. The States Parties shall make every effort to achieve consensus on each amendment. If all efforts at consensus have been exhausted, and no agreement reached, the amendment shall, as a last resort, be adopted by a three-quarters majority vote of the States Parties present and voting at the meeting of the Conference of States Parties. For the purposes of this Article, States Parties present and voting means States Parties present and casting an affirmative or negative vote.

For full  document see CLIMATE CHANGE: COP 21 PARIS - TIME TO BE BOLD

http://pejnews.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=10234:-climate-change-cop-21-paris-time-to-be-bold&catid=86:i-earth-news&Itemid=210

B

POST MORTEM OF  COP21

I.     SYSTEMIC CONSTRAINTS PREVENTING THE COMMITMENT TO URGENCY

 

IN COP21 IN THE PREAMBLE IS THE “RECOGNITION THAT CLIMATE CHANGE REPRESENTS AN URGENT AND POTENTIALLY IRREVERSIBLE THREAT TO HUMAN SOCIETY AND THE PLANET”

YET  WAS THE URGENCY ADDRESSED IN COP21?

I AM GOING  TO TALK ABOUT THE FOLLOWING SYSTEMIC CONSTRAINTS  THAT PREVENTED COP21 FROM ADDRESSING THE URGENCY OF CLIMATE CHANGE ;

1.THE BEST IS THE ENEMY OF THE GOOD- THE COMPROMISERS CREDOAND

2. SOME STATES ARE MORE EQUAL THAN OTHERS.

3. -EXPEDIENT OMISSION; GLOBAL CARBON BUDGET. HISTORICAL  AND PER CAPITA EMISSIONS

4. THE SHORTNESS OF INSTITUTIONAL MEMORY AND THE UNDERMINING OF LEGAL OBLIGATIONS FROM ARTICLE 2 3 AND 4

5. A SOLUTION SHOULD NEVER BE EQUALLY BAD OR WORSE THAN THE PROBLEM IT IS INTENDED TO SOLVE

6. THE LOWEST COMMON DENOMINATOR; THE  TYRANNY OF CONSENSUS6.

AND CONCLUDE WITH  A WAY TO OVERCOME THESE CONSTRAINTS

FIRST SYSTEMIC CONSTRAINT

THE BEST IS THE ENEMY OF THE GOOD

 

AT COP21 BAN KI-MOON URGED STATES TO NEGOTIATE WITH A GLOBAL VISION NOT FROM SPECIFIC NATIONAL INTERESTS”

 

WHAT COP21 SHOULD HAVE BEEN WAS A NEW GLOBAL VISION WTIH LEGALLY BINDING ACTIONS TO FINALLY IMPLEMENT THE BINDING COMMITMENTS AND ADHERE TO THE PRINCIPLES  IN THE LEGALLY BINDING 1992 UN FRAMEWORK CONVENTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE UNFCCC

ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE NEGOTIATIONS, GOVERNMENTS WERE TALKING ABOUT THEIR REDLINES: I.E. WE WILL NOT AGREE TO A DOCUMENT IF X IS IN THE TEXT OR IF X IS NOT IN THE TEXT.

 

GLOBAL VISION WOULD HAVE BEEN GIVEN THAT  THE STATES HAD FAILED TO RETURN TO 1990 LEVELS BY THE END OF THE CENTURY IN 2000.. IF ONLY THEY HAD RETURNED TO 1990 LEVELS BY 2000 THEN NOW IN 2015, GIVEN THE URGENCY AND THE LOST TIME  IN 2015  THEY MUST MAKE EVEN STRONGER COMMITMENTS; 

 

 REAL COMMITMENTS WOULD BE TIME LINES AND TARGETS IN LINE WITH EXISTING AND EMERGING SCIENCE SUCH  AS 15% BELOW 1990 BY 2016, 20% BELOW 1990 BY 2017, 30% BELOW 1990 LEVELS BY 2018, 50% BELOW 1990 LEVELS BY 2020, 65 % BELOW 1990 LEVELS BY 2025, 75% BELOW 1990 LEVELS BY 2040 AND 100% BELOW 1990 EMISSIONS BY 2050,  DECARBONIZATION WITH 100% ECOLOGICALLY SOUND RENEWABLE ENERGY,  

 

 

 

 

SECOND SYSTEMIC CONSTRAINT

SOME STATES ARE MORE EQUAL THAN OTHER

FROM COP15/16 TO COP21 THE SYSTEMIC CONSTRAINT

SOME STATES ARE MORE EQUAL THAN OTHERS WAS EVIDENT

 

ALLTHREE COPS  DISCOUNTED THE EVIDENCE OF THE SCIENTIST AND IGNORED THE PLEAS OF THE DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

 

THE DEVELOPED STATES' NEGOTIATORS WERE RELYING ON THE 2007 INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE REPORT WITH DATA FROM 2004 AND 2005, BUT THE DEVELOPING STATES WERE DRIVEN BY NEW AND EVOLVING SCIENTIFIC DATA. SCIENTIFIC REPORTS AT COP 15 REVEALED NEW DATA;

THE WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANISATION REPORTED MORE RAPID GLOBAL WARMING, MORE  DROUGHT, AND MORE FREQUENT AND SEVERE CLIMATE RELATED INCIDENTS, AND THAT GLACIERS ARE MELTING FASTER THAN PREDICTED IN 2007 IPCC REPORT. THE UN HIGH COMMISSION ON REFUGEES NOTED THAT THE WORLD ALREADY HAD MILLIONS MORE REFUGEES THAN EXPECTED, BECAUSE OF CLIMATE CHANGE.

 

 AT AN IPCC PRESS CONFERENCE  A SCIENTIST FROM THE IPCC WARNED  THAT AT A 2 DEGREE RISE IN TEMPERATURE, THE POOR, THE VULNERABLE, AND THE DISENFRANCHISED WOULD NOT SURVIVE, AT A 1.5 DEGREE RISE, THEY MIGHT

 

THIRD SYSTEMIC CONSTRAINT

;EXPEDIENT OMISSION CARBON BUDGET

 

APART FROM LONG LIST OF WHAT THEY ARE GOING TO DO WITHOUT BEING COMPELLED TO DO ANYTHING. THERE WERE SEVERAL EXPEDIENT OMISSIONS IN THE FINal DOCUMENT, FIRST THERE WAS NO MENTION OF FOSSIL FUELS- INCLUDING OIL, COAL OR GAS, HISTORICAL OR PERCAPITA EMISSIONS AND ABOVVE ALL THERE WAS NO MENTION OF THE CARBON BUDGET AND FAIR SHARES OF

THE CARBON BUDGET AT THE PRESS CONFERENCEHE TOTAL CARBON BUDGET WAS A BIG ISSUE WItH SCIENISTS AND NGOS 

TOTAL CARBON BUDGET IS ESTIMATED AT  2900 GIGATONS   FROM PRE-INDUSTRIAL TIME IN ORDER TO KEEP BELOW 2 DEGREES

AND THAT IN 2011 1900 GIGATONS OF CO2 HAD BEEN USED  UPTHUS ABOUT 1000 GIGATONS REMAINS 

 

AT THE CURRENT RATE OF 35.7 GT PER YEAR, IN 2015 THERE WOULD ONLY REMAIN AROUND 860 GT

 

IPCC – ESTIMATES THE TOTAL REMAINING EMISSIONS FROM 2014/2015 TO KEEP GLOBAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURE BELOW 2°C (900/ 860GTCO2 ) WILL BE USED IN AROUND 20 YEARS AT CURRENT EMISSION RATES

http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/15/files/GCP_budget_2015_v1.pdf

THE EMISSION PLEDGES FROM THE US, EU, CHINA, AND INDIA LEAVE LITTLE ROOM FOR OTHER COUNTRIES TO EMIT IN A 2°C EMISSION BUDGET (66% CHANCE) OF THE 35 GIGA TONS

 

UNEP  INDICATED THAT IN 2045 ALL THE GLOBAL CARBON BUDGET WOULD BE USED UP 

 

IF THE CURRENT ANNUAL  RATE CONTINUES OF 35.7-40 GIGA TONSTHE BUDGET NOT BE USED UP MORE LIKELY BY 2037

WILL BE USED UP IN 20 YEARS  2 DEGREE SCENARIO

WILL BE USED UP IN 6 YEARS  1.5 DEGREES

THIS IS FRIGHTENING AND EQUALLY FRIGHTENING IS THAT IS WAS IGNORED IN THE AGREEMENT.

 

THIS EVIDENCE IS SIGNIFICANT  FOR THE STRESS THE URGENCY OF HAVING LEGALLY BINDING INTERNATIONALLY DETERMINED MITIGATION COMMITMENTS.

3 Accepting the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios provide us with a global carbon budget that will be consumed in 10–20 years at current emissions levels, 4 and entail very significant levels of risk.

 

 

FOURTH SYSTEMIC CONSTRAINT;.

SHORTNESS OF INSTITUTIONAL MEMORY

COP21 SUFFERED FROM THE SHIFTING BASELINE SYNDROME

 

Cop21 NEEDED TO ADVOCATED STRONGER ACTIONS  THAN WERE PROPOSED IN THE UNFCCC WAS IN 1992.

UNFCCC PREAMBLE; HISTORIC EMISSIONS

IS THE FOLLOWING:

NOTING THAT THE LARGEST SHARE OF HISTORICAL AND CURRENT GLOBAL EMISSIONS OF GREENHOUSE GASES HAS ORIGINATED IN DEVELOPED COUNTRIES, THAT PER CAPITA EMISSIONS IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES ARE STILL RELATIVELY LOW AND THAT THE SHARE OF GLOBAL EMISSIONS ORIGINATING IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES WILL GROW TO MEET THEIR SOCIAL AND DEVELOPMENT NEEDS,

IN COP21

REFERENCES TO HISTORICL EMISSIONS 0

PER CAPITA 0

DECARBONIZATION BY 2050 IN EARLY VERSIONS COP 21 NOW

PARTIES, AND TO UNDERTAKE RAPID REDUCTIONS THEREAFTER IN ACCORDANCE WITH BEST AVAILABLE SCIENCE, SO AS TO ACHIEVE A BALANCE BETWEEN ANTHROPOGENIC EMISSIONS BY SOURCES AND REMOVALS BY SINKS OF GREENHOUSE GASES IN THE SECOND HALF OF THIS CENTURY, ON THE BASIS OF EQUITY, AND IN THE CONTEXT OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT AND EFFORTS TO ERADICATE POVERTY

 

COP21 SUFFERED FROM THE SHIFTING BASELINE SYNDROME

BAN KI-MOON URGED NEGOTIATORS TO NEGOTIATE WITH A GLOBAL VISION;.

A GLOBAL VISION IS NOT JUST RECALLING (AS WAS DONE IN COP21) BUT ABIDING BY ARTICLES 2 3 AND 4 IN THE LEGALLY BINDING UN FRAMEWORK CONVENTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE (UNFCCC)

UNFCCCOBJECTIVE ARTICLE 2

 

UNFCCC

ARTICLE 2 OBJECTIVE THE ULTIMATE OBJECTIVE OF THIS CONVENTION AND ANY RELATED LEGAL INSTRUMENTS THAT THE CONFERENCE OF THE PARTIES MAY ADOPT IS TO ACHIEVE, IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE RELEVANT PROVISIONS OF THE CONVENTION, STABILIZATION OF GREENHOUSE GAS CONCENTRATIONS IN THE ATMOSPHERE AT A LEVEL THAT WOULD PREVENT DANGEROUS ANTHROPOGENIC INTERFERENCE WITH THE CLIMATE SYSTEM. SUCH A LEVEL SHOULD BE ACHIEVED WITHIN A TIME-FRAME SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW ECOSYSTEMS TO ADAPT NATURALLY TO CLIMATE CHANGE, TO ENSURE THAT FOOD PRODUCTION IS NOT THREATENED AND TO ENABLE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT TO PROCEED IN A SUSTAINABLE MANNER.

 

COP21

2AHOLDING THE INCREASE IN THE GLOBAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURE TO WELL BELOW 2 °C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL LEVELS AND TO PURSUE EFFORTS TO LIMIT THE TEMPERATURE INCREASE TO 1.5 °C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL LEVELS, RECOGNIZING THAT THIS WOULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE THE RISKS AND IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE;

 

BUT AT 1 DEGREE RISE IN TEMPERATURE THERE IS ALREADY  DE-STABILIZATION OF GREENHOUSE GAS CONCENTRATIONS IN THE ATMOSPHERE AT A LEVEL THAT IS CAUSING DANGEROUS ANTHROPOGENIC INTERFERENCE WITH THE CLIMATE SYSTEM.

stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.

a global vision  would be to address article 2 would be at a minimum to immediately end all subsidies for fossil fuel, to calculate the carbon budget for each state, to enforce fair  share of the carbon budget,   to divest in fossil fuels and to reinvest in renewable energy, to commit to decarbonisation by 2050,to conserve sinks (not  just as a means to offset emissions), to avoid all false solutions such as nuclear, geo-engineering and biofuels which would all violate principles within the unfccc and to compensate for historical  emissions.

 

UNFCCC ARTICLE 3 PRINCIPLES

 IN THEIR ACTIONS TO ACHIEVE THE OBJECTIVE OF THE CONVENTION AND TO IMPLEMENT ITS PROVISIONS, THE PARTIES SHALL BE GUIDED, INTER ALIA, BY THE FOLLOWING:

 .UNFCCC  3.1. THE PARTIES SHOULD PROTECT THE CLIMATE SYSTEM FOR THE BENEFIT OF PRESENT AND FUTURE GENERATIONS OF HUMANKIND, ON THETBASIS OF EQUITY AND IN ACCORDANCE WITH THEIR COMMON BUT DIFFERENTIATED RESPONSIBILITIES AND RESPECTIVE CAPABILITIES. ACCORDINGLY, THE DEVELOPED COUNTRY PARTIES SHOULD TAKE THE LEAD IN COMBATING CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE ADVERSE EFFECTS THEREOF.

.UNFCCC

 

A GLOBAL VISION WOULD HAVE BEEN TO REPECT THE COMMITMENTS UNDER ARTICLE 4 IN UNFCCC

 

UNFCCC ARTICLE 4 COMMITMENTS

 

1. ALL PARTIES, TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THEIR COMMON BUT DIFFERENTIATED RESPONSIBILITIES AND THEIR SPECIFIC NATIONAL AND REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT PRIORITIES, OBJECTIVES AND CIRCUMSTANCES, SHALL:

 (A) DEVELOP, PERIODICALLY UPDATE, PUBLISH AND MAKE AVAILABLE TO THE CONFERENCE OF THE PARTIES, IN ACCORDANCE WITH ARTICLE 12, NATIONAL INVENTORIES OF ANTHROPOGENIC EMISSIONS BY SOURCES AND REMOVALS BY SINKS OF ALL GREENHOUSE GASES NOT CONTROLLED BY THE MONTREAL PROTOCOL, USING COMPARABLE METHODOLOGIES TO BE AGREED UPON BY THE CONFERENCE OF THE PARTIES;

 (B) FORMULATE, IMPLEMENT, PUBLISH AND REGULARLY UPDATE NATIONAL AND, WHERE APPROPRIATE, REGIONAL PROGRAMMES CONTAINING MEASURES TO MITIGATE CLIMATE CHANGE BY ADDRESSING ANTHROPOGENIC EMISSIONS BY SOURCES AND REMOVALS BY SINKS OF ALL GREENHOUSE GASES NOT CONTROLLED BY THE MONTREAL PROTOCOL, AND MEASURES TO FACILITATE ADEQUATE ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE;

 (C) PROMOTE AND COOPERATE IN THE DEVELOPMENT, APPLICATION AND DIFFUSION, INCLUDING TRANSFER, OF TECHNOLOGIES, PRACTICES AND PROCESSES THAT CONTROL, REDUCE OR PREVENT ANTHROPOGENIC EMISSIONS OF GREENHOUSE GASES NOT CONTROLLED BY THE MONTREAL PROTOCOL IN ALL RELEVANT SECTORS, INCLUDING THE ENERGY, TRANSPORT, INDUSTRY, AGRICULTURE, FORESTRY AND WASTE MANAGEMENT SECTORS;

(D) PROMOTE SUSTAINABLE MANAGEMENT, AND PROMOTE AND COOPERATE IN THE CONSERVATION AND ENHANCEMENT, AS APPROPRIATE, OF SINKS AND RESERVOIRS OF ALL 11 GREENHOUSE GASES NOT CONTROLLED BY THE MONTREAL PROTOCOL, INCLUDING BIOMASS, FORESTS AND OCEANS AS WELL AS OTHER TERRESTRIAL, COASTAL AND MARINE ECOSYSTEMS;

 (E) COOPERATE IN PREPARING FOR ADAPTATION TO THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE; DEVELOP AND ELABORATE APPROPRIATE AND INTEGRATED PLANS FOR COASTAL ZONE MANAGEMENT, WATER RESOURCES AND AGRICULTURE, AND FOR THE PROTECTION AND REHABILITATION OF AREAS, PARTICULARLY IN AFRICA, AFFECTED BY DROUGHT AND DESERTIFICATION, AS WELL AS FLOODS;

(F) TAKE CLIMATE CHANGE CONSIDERATIONS INTO ACCOUNT, TO THE EXTENT FEASIBLE, IN THEIR RELEVANT SOCIAL, ECONOMIC AND ENVIRONMENTAL POLICIES AND ACTIONS, AND EMPLOY APPROPRIATE METHODS, FOR EXAMPLE IMPACT ASSESSMENTS, FORMULATED AND DETERMINED NATIONALLY, WITH A VIEW TO MINIMIZING ADVERSE EFFECTS ON THE ECONOMY, ON PUBLIC HEALTH AND ON THE QUALITY OF THE ENVIRONMENT, OF PROJECTS OR MEASURES UNDERTAKEN BY THEM TO MITIGATE OR ADAPT TO CLIMATE CHANGE;

(G) PROMOTE AND COOPERATE IN SCIENTIFIC, TECHNOLOGICAL, TECHNICAL, SOCIO-ECONOMIC AND OTHER RESEARCH, SYSTEMATIC OBSERVATION AND DEVELOPMENT OF DATA ARCHIVES RELATED TO THE CLIMATE SYSTEM AND INTENDED TO FURTHER THE UNDERSTANDING AND TO REDUCE OR ELIMINATE THE REMAINING UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE CAUSES, EFFECTS, MAGNITUDE AND TIMING OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL CONSEQUENCES OF VARIOUS RESPONSE STRATEGIES;

(H) PROMOTE AND COOPERATE IN THE FULL, OPEN AND PROMPT EXCHANGE OF RELEVANT SCIENTIFIC, TECHNOLOGICAL, TECHNICAL, SOCIO-ECONOMIC AND LEGAL INFORMATION RELATED TO THE CLIMATE SYSTEM AND CLIMATE CHANGE, AND TO THE ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL CONSEQUENCES OF VARIOUS RESPONSE STRATEGIES;

 (I) PROMOTE AND COOPERATE IN EDUCATION, TRAINING AND PUBLIC AWARENESS RELATED TO CLIMATE CHANGE AND ENCOURAGE THE WIDEST PARTICIPATION IN THIS PROCESS, INCLUDING THAT OF NON-GOVERNMENTAL ORGANIZATIONS; AND

 (J) COMMUNICATE TO THE CONFERENCE OF THE PARTIES INFORMATION RELATED TO IMPLEMENTATION, IN ACCORDANCE WITH ARTICLE 12.

 

UNFCCC ARTICLE 4 2. THE DEVELOPED COUNTRY PARTIES AND OTHER PARTIES INCLUDED IN ANNEX I COMMIT THEMSELVES SPECIFICALLY AS PROVIDED FOR IN THE FOLLOWING: 12 (

 

UNFCCC 4.2(A) EACH OF THESE PARTIES SHALL ADOPT NATIONAL1 POLICIES AND TAKE CORRESPONDING MEASURES ON THE MITIGATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE, BY LIMITING ITS ANTHROPOGENIC EMISSIONS OF GREENHOUSE GASES AND PROTECTING AND ENHANCING ITS GREENHOUSE GAS SINKS AND RESERVOIRS. THESE POLICIES AND MEASURES WILL DEMONSTRATE THAT DEVELOPED COUNTRIES ARE TAKING THE LEAD IN MODIFYING LONGER-TERM TRENDS IN ANTHROPOGENIC EMISSIONS CONSISTENT WITH THE OBJECTIVE OF THE CONVENTION, RECOGNIZING THAT THE RETURN BY THE END OF THE PRESENT DECADE TO EARLIER LEVELS OF ANTHROPOGENIC EMISSIONS OF CARBON DIOXIDE AND OTHER GREENHOUSE GASES NOT CONTROLLED BY THE MONTREAL PROTOCOL WOULD CONTRIBUTE TO SUCH MODIFICATION, AND TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE DIFFERENCES IN THESE PARTIES' STARTING POINTS AND APPROACHES, ECONOMIC STRUCTURES AND RESOURCE BASES, THE NEED TO MAINTAIN STRONG AND SUSTAINABLE ECONOMIC GROWTH, AVAILABLE TECHNOLOGIES AND OTHER INDIVIDUAL CIRCUMSTANCES, AS WELL AS THE NEED FOR EQUITABLE AND APPROPRIATE CONTRIBUTIONS BY EACH OF THESE PARTIES TO THE GLOBAL EFFORT REGARDING THAT OBJECTIVE. THESE PARTIES MAY IMPLEMENT SUCH POLICIES AND MEASURES JOINTLY WITH OTHER PARTIES AND MAY ASSIST OTHER PARTIES IN CONTRIBUTING TO THE ACHIEVEMENT OF THE OBJECTIVE OF THE CONVENTION AND, IN PARTICULAR, THAT OF THIS SUBPARAGRAPH;

 

UNFCCC 4.2 (B) IN ORDER TO PROMOTE PROGRESS TO THIS END, EACH OF THESE PARTIES SHALL COMMUNICATE, WITHIN SIX MONTHS OF THE ENTRY INTO FORCE OF THE CONVENTION FOR IT AND PERIODICALLY THEREAFTER, AND IN ACCORDANCE WITH ARTICLE 12, DETAILED INFORMATION ON ITS POLICIES AND MEASURES REFERRED TO IN SUBPARAGRAPH (A) ABOVE, AS WELL AS ON ITS RESULTING PROJECTED ANTHROPOGENIC EMISSIONS BY SOURCES AND REMOVALS BY SINKS OF GREENHOUSE GASES NOT CONTROLLED BY THE MONTREAL PROTOCOL FOR THE PERIOD REFERRED TO IN SUBPARAGRAPH (A), WITH THE AIM OF RETURNING INDIVIDUALLY OR JOINTLY TO THEIR 1990 LEVELS THESE ANTHROPOGENIC EMISSIONS OF CARBON DIOXIDE AND OTHER GREENHOUSE GASES NOT CONTROLLED BY THE MONTREAL PROTOCOL. THIS INFORMATION WILL BE REVIEWED BY THE CONFERENCE OF THE PARTIES, AT ITS FIRST SESSION AND PERIODICALLY THEREAFTER, IN ACCORDANCE WITH ARTICLE 7;

 

 IN 1990 AVERAGE CO2 LEVELS (CONCENTRATIONS) IN THE ATMOSPHERE WERE 320 PPM, THAT THE GLOBAL RISE IN TEMPERATURE FROM 1850-1990 WAS 0.78 DEGREES C AND THAT THE ANNUAL EMISSIONS OF CO2 IN 1990 AND 2015 WERE 22 AND 39 GIGATONNES RESPECTIVELY

 

NOTE IN 1992 THERE WAS NO DISCUSSION ABOUT OFFSETS  ETC. 

              

 SO  IF OFFSETS ETC WHAT PERCENTAGE REDUCTION  BELOW 1990 LEVELS WOULD THE CONTRIBUTIONS HAVE TO BE TO REVERSE THE TEMPERATURE TO ..78 C

 

UNFCCC 4.2 (C) CALCULATIONS OF EMISSIONS BY SOURCES AND REMOVALS BY SINKS OF GREENHOUSE GASES FOR THE PURPOSES OF SUBPARAGRAPH (B) ABOVE SHOULD TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE BEST AVAILABLE SCIENTIFIC KNOWLEDGE, INCLUDING OF THE EFFECTIVE CAPACITY OF SINKS AND THE RESPECTIVE CONTRIBUTIONS OF SUCH GASES TO CLIMATE CHANGE. THE CONFERENCE OF THE PARTIES SHALL CONSIDER AND AGREE 1 THIS INCLUDES POLICIES AND MEASURES ADOPTED BY REGIONAL ECONOMIC INTEGRATION ORGANIZATIONS. 13 ON METHODOLOGIES FOR THESE CALCULATIONS AT ITS FIRST SESSION AND REVIEW THEM REGULARLY THEREAFTER;

 

UNFCCC 4.2 (D) THE CONFERENCE OF THE PARTIES SHALL, AT ITS FIRST SESSION, REVIEW THE ADEQUACY OF SUBPARAGRAPHS (A) AND (B) ABOVE. SUCH REVIEW SHALL BE CARRIED OUT IN THE LIGHT OF THE BEST AVAILABLE SCIENTIFIC INFORMATION AND ASSESSMENT ON CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS IMPACTS, AS WELL AS RELEVANT TECHNICAL, SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC INFORMATION. BASED ON THIS REVIEW, THE CONFERENCE OF THE PARTIES SHALL TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION, WHICH MAY INCLUDE THE ADOPTION OF AMENDMENTS TO THE COMMITMENTS IN SUBPARAGRAPHS (A) AND (B) ABOVE. THE CONFERENCE OF THE PARTIES, AT ITS FIRST SESSION, SHALL ALSO TAKE DECISIONS REGARDING CRITERIA FOR JOINT IMPLEMENTATION AS INDICATED IN SUBPARAGRAPH (A) ABOVE. A SECOND REVIEW OF SUBPARAGRAPHS (A) AND (B) SHALL TAKE PLACE NOT LATER THAN 31 DECEMBER 1998, AND THEREAFTER AT REGULAR INTERVALS DETERMINED BY THE CONFERENCE OF THE PARTIES, UNTIL THE OBJECTIVE OF THE CONVENTION IS MET;

 

UNFCCC 4.2 (E) EACH OF THESE PARTIES SHALL : (I) COORDINATE AS APPROPRIATE WITH OTHER SUCH PARTIES, RELEVANT ECONOMIC AND ADMINISTRATIVE INSTRUMENTS DEVELOPED TO ACHIEVE THE OBJECTIVE OF THE CONVENTION; AND

(II) IDENTIFY AND PERIODICALLY REVIEW ITS OWN POLICIES AND PRACTICES WHICH ENCOURAGE ACTIVITIES THAT LEAD TO GREATER LEVELS OF ANTHROPOGENIC EMISSIONS OF GREENHOUSE GASES NOT CONTROLLED BY THE MONTREAL PROTOCOL THAN WOULD OTHERWISE OCCUR;

 

UNFCCC 4.2(F) THE CONFERENCE OF THE PARTIES SHALL REVIEW, NOT LATER THAN 31 DECEMBER 1998, AVAILABLE INFORMATION WITH A VIEW TO TAKING DECISIONS REGARDING SUCH AMENDMENTS TO THE LISTS IN ANNEXES I AND II AS MAY BE APPROPRIATE, WITH THE APPROVAL OF THE PARTY CONCERNED;

 

UNFCCC 4.2 (G) ANY PARTY NOT INCLUDED IN ANNEX I MAY, IN ITS INSTRUMENT OF RATIFICATION, ACCEPTANCE, APPROVAL OR ACCESSION, OR AT ANY TIME THEREAFTER, NOTIFY THE DEPOSITARY THAT IT INTENDS TO BE BOUND BY SUBPARAGRAPHS (A) AND (B) ABOVE. THE DEPOSITARY SHALL INFORM THE OTHER SIGNATORIES AND PARTIES OF ANY SUCH NOTIFICATION.

 

UNFCCC 4.3. THE DEVELOPED COUNTRY PARTIES AND OTHER DEVELOPED PARTIES INCLUDED IN ANNEX II SHALL PROVIDE NEW AND ADDITIONAL FINANCIAL RESOURCES TO MEET THE AGREED FULL COSTS INCURRED BY 14 DEVELOPING COUNTRY PARTIES IN COMPLYING WITH THEIR OBLIGATIONS UNDER ARTICLE 12, PARAGRAPH 1. THEY SHALL ALSO PROVIDE SUCH FINANCIAL RESOURCES, INCLUDING FOR THE TRANSFER OF TECHNOLOGY, NEEDED BY THE DEVELOPING COUNTRY PARTIES TO MEET THE AGREED FULL INCREMENTAL COSTS OF IMPLEMENTING MEASURES THAT ARE COVERED BY PARAGRAPH 1 OF THIS ARTICLE AND THAT ARE AGREED BETWEEN A DEVELOPING COUNTRY PARTY AND THE INTERNATIONAL ENTITY OR ENTITIES REFERRED TO IN ARTICLE 11, IN ACCORDANCE WITH THAT ARTICLE. THE IMPLEMENTATION OF THESE COMMITMENTS SHALL TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE NEED FOR ADEQUACY AND PREDICTABILITY IN THE FLOW OF FUNDS AND THE IMPORTANCE OF APPROPRIATE BURDEN SHARING AMONG THE DEVELOPED COUNTRY PARTIES.

 

 UNFCCC 4.4.  THE DEVELOPED COUNTRY PARTIES AND OTHER DEVELOPED PARTIES INCLUDED IN ANNEX II SHALL ALSO ASSIST THE DEVELOPING COUNTRY PARTIES THAT ARE PARTICULARLY VULNERABLE TO THE ADVERSE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN MEETING COSTS OF ADAPTATION TO THOSE ADVERSE EFFECTS.

 

 

 

 

FIFTH SYSTEMIC CONSTRAINT

A SOLUTION SHOULD NEVER BE EQUALLY BAD OR WORSE THAN THE PROBLEM IT IS INTENDED TO SOLVE

NOTE ; THAT BILL GATES IS WORKING WITT OTHER BILLIONAIRES ON GEO ENGINEERING AND A NEW FORM OF NUCLEAR

BIOFUEL AND LAD GRA

 

 

 

 

SIXTH SYSTEMIC CONSTRAINT

THE LOWEST COMMON DENOMINATOR THE TYRANNY OF CONSENSUS

 

A GLOBAL VISION WOULD HAVE BEEN THE STRIVING FOR CONSENSUS WITH FALBACK 75 % ESPECIALLYWITHIN EACH ARTICLE

 

AT COP21UNTIL THE LAST VERSIONS ARTICLE 22; ALLOWED FOR FALLBACK

ARTICLE 22 (VOTING)

1. EACH PARTY SHALL HAVE ONE VOTE,

3. WITHOUT PREJUDICE TO THE PROVISIONS OF PARAGRAPH 3 OF ARTICLE 15 OF THE CONVENTION, THE PARTIES SHALL MAKE EVERY EFFORT TO REACH AGREEMENT ON ALL MATTERS BY CONSENSUS. IF SUCH EFFORTS TO REACH CONSENSUS HAVE BEEN EXHAUSTED AND NO AGREEMENT HAS BEEN REACHED, A DECISION SHALL, AS A LAST RESORT, BE ADOPTED BY A THREE-FOURTHS MAJORITY VOTE OF THE PARTIES PRESENT AND VOTING.

4. FOR THE PURPOSE OF THIS ARTICLE, 'PARTIES PRESENT AND VOTING' MEANS PARTIES PRESENT AND CASTING AN AFFIRMATIVE OR NEGATIVE VOTE.]

 

IN A PRESS CONFERENCE OF THE UNFCCC SECRETARIAT I SUGGESTED THAT TO AVOID DESCEINDING TO THE LOWEST COMMON DENOMINATOR. |PERHAPS PRINCIPLE 22 COULD APPLY TO EACH ARTICLE. IF THER WERE A FALLBACK TO 75% IN ARTICLE 2  OVER 80 PERCENT OF THE STATES WOULD HAVE AGREED TO KEEP THE TEMPERATURE BELOW 1.5 AND TO HAVE LEGALLY BINDING MITIGATION COMMITMENTS FOR THE MAJOR GREENHOUSE GAS EMITTERS.

 

C.

CANADA SHOULD ACT ON FULFILLING SDG 13 AND BAN KI MOON’S CALL FOR

NEGOTIATING WITH A GLOBAL VISION

There is a moral imperative for Canada to act with a global vision and with urgency

 

Canada adopted the SDGS In September 2015

SDG Goal 13. Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impact

 

 

Given that Canada has the greatest per capita greenhouse gas emissions, there is a moral imperative to embrace its global responsibity and proceed with a global vision not a fossil fuel vision.

 

 

At Cop 21, Ban ki-Moon urged states to negotiate with a "global vision" not with national vested interests. (A paraphrase of his statement at a COP21press conference)

 

 

There is an unclear relationship between the UNFCCC and what came out of Paris. Unless the voluntary contributions become revised and firm commitments, made to address the global carbon budget and to keep well below 1.5 degrees, the Paris Agreement will undermine Article 2 of the UNFCCC, (stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic with the  climate system)

 

A global vision  to implement article 2 would be, at a minimum, to immediately end all subsidies for fossil fuel, (no tar sands, no pipelines and no tankers) to divest in fossil fuels, and reinvest in socially equitable and environmentally sound renewable energy, to not use “transition” to justify reinvestment  in the continuation of the fossil fuel industry, to calculate the carbon budget for each province, to enforce fair  share of the carbon budget, 

 

To commit  to 25% reduction of GHGs emissions below 1990 levels by 2020, 35% below 1990 by 2025, 50% below 1990 by 2030, 60 % below 1990 by 2035. 75%below1990 by 2040 to 100 % below 1990 by 2050 to decarbonisation by 2050, and 100% socially equitable and environmentally sound renewables.

 

 

To compensate for historical  emissions which have impacted vulnerable states, to avoid all false solutions such as nuclear, geo-engineering and biofuels which would all violate principles within the UNFCCC,  

 

to  end the exemption of the contribution of militarism to greenhouse gas emissions, and finally to implement the following 1992 commitment ”to reallocate resources at present committed to military purposes (Article 16e,Chapter 33, Agenda 21, UNCED). The funds should

be transferred to implementing the above

 

To institute fair and just transition for workers and communities  affected by the above.

 

 

If you don’t leave crude oil in the soil Coal in the hole and tar sands in the land I will confront and denounce you

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Earth News

Posted by Joan Russow

Saturday, 21 December 2013 16:47

(a poem by Nnimmo Bassey)

 

 

From the 2010 Cochabamba Conference - Speech by Nnimmo Bassey at the Opening Ceremony of the conference


Nnimmo Bassey represented Friends of the Earth and Africa at the Conference. After his opening remarks he recited the following poem. I will not dance to your beat (a poem by Nnimmo Bassey)
 

I will not dance to your beat 



I will not dance to your beat 
If you call plantations forests
I will not sing with you 
If you privatise my water
I will confront you with my fists
If climate change means death to me but business to you
I will expose your evil greed 
If you don’t leave crude oil in the soil
Coal in the hole and tar sands in the land
I will confront and denounce you 
If you insist on carbon offsetting and other do-nothing false solutions
I will make you see red
If you keep talking of REDD and push forest communities away from their land
I will drag you to the Climate Tribunal  
If you pile up ecological debt
& refuse to pay your climate debt
I will make you drink your own medicine  
If you endorse genetically modified crops
And throw dust into the skies to mask the sun
I will not dance to your beat
Unless we walk the sustainable path
And accept real solutions & respect Mother Earth
Unless you do
I will not & 
We will not dance to your beat

- Cochabamba/Tiquipaya
20 April 2010
Read at the opening ceremony of the World Peoples Climate Conference Summit

- Show quoted text -

 

 

 

 

 

Last Updated on Friday, 09 September 2016 12:16
 

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